Responsible trading.

Prediction markets involve real money and real risk. Here is how to approach them responsibly.

Trading involves real financial risk.

Prediction market trading can result in the loss of some or all of the money you deposit. Contracts that expire out of the money are worth zero.

Past performance of any market, strategy, or contract does not guarantee future results. Nothing on Inside Predictions constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to trade.

Principles of responsible trading.

• Set a budget before you deposit and treat it as money you can afford to lose entirely. Once it is gone, stop; do not deposit more to chase losses.
• Size your positions. Even correct predictions lose sometimes, so a common guideline is to risk no more than 1 to 5% of your bankroll on any single position.
• Set time limits. Prediction markets run around the clock with no natural stopping point; if you find yourself checking prices compulsively, that is a signal to step back.
• Never trade under the influence of alcohol, drugs, fatigue, or strong emotion. That applies equally to the euphoria of a winning streak and the frustration after losses.
• Keep records of every deposit, withdrawal, and trade outcome. Knowing your actual profit and loss over time is the best defense against self-deception.
• Accept that you will lose. Losses are a normal part of participation; if you cannot accept them without distress or the urge to win it back immediately, prediction markets may not be appropriate for you.

Warning signs that trading has become a problem.

Problem gambling and compulsive trading share the same behavioral patterns. Watch for:

• Trading with money you cannot afford to lose
• Chasing losses with new deposits
• Lying to family or friends about your trading
• Feeling anxious or restless when you are not trading
• Trying to cut back and failing
• Trading interfering with work, relationships, or daily responsibilities

If any of these apply to you, consider taking a break and seeking support through the resources below.

Support resources.

If you or someone you know is experiencing problems related to prediction market trading, gambling, or compulsive financial behavior, help is available. All resources listed below are free and confidential.

Our commitment to responsible trading.

• Never use language that implies guaranteed profits, risk-free trading, or easy money
• Never suppress information about platform risks
• Always include risk warnings on pages that link to prediction market platforms
• Keep the helplines and support resources current