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Real-time prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi
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How sports and entertainment contracts work.
A platform lists an event with a deadline and a named resolution source. Often binary (yes or no), sometimes categorical or multiple-choice.
Inside the contract window, the season plays out. A team wins the title or doesn't. A player wins MVP or doesn't. A coach gets fired or doesn't.
Resolution is decided by the named source in the contract. League website, official scorekeeper, AP wire, awards announcement.
The platform settles the contract against the source. Kalshi auto-settles when the league announces. Polymarket settles via UMA proposer; the network confirms within 24 hours unless disputed. Game scores almost never get disputed; the rare disputes are about award-vote timing or eligibility edges, not who won.
Same event. Different platforms.
Who will win the World Series?
Auto-settles against MLB's official World Series result. Kalshi resolves once the Commissioner's Trophy is awarded. No proposer, no dispute window.
Who will win the World Series?
Resolves via UMA proposer against the World Series result. Proposer files outcome, network confirms within hours unless disputed. dispute bond. Championship finals have historically been a clean-resolution market.
Both contracts settle against the same outcome. What changes is the venue: liquidity, fees, and how each platform handles edge cases.
Follow a live sports contract.
Will the Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
The Dodgers open the 2026 season with their stated rotation and lineup intact. Through the first month, the rotation holds up and the bat order produces. The market reads early form as confirmation of the pre-season thesis: traders reprice toward the consensus favorite range. Slow starts or rotation injuries would have pushed it the other way.
The 2026 sports and entertainment contract calendar.
MLB World Series and college football
3 contracts · resolve Oct 2026 to Jan 2027Who will win the 2026 World Series?
- Jul 31 MLB trade deadline · contender lineups firm up
- Sep Regular season closes · playoff seeding set
- Oct Wild Card · LDS · LCS
- Late Oct World Series · resolution
Who will win the 2026 World Series?
- Jul 31 MLB trade deadline · contender lineups firm up
- Sep Regular season closes · playoff seeding set
- Oct Wild Card · LDS · LCS
- Late Oct World Series · resolution
Who will win the 2026-27 College Football National Championship?
- Aug-Nov Regular season · weekly AP and Coaches polls reset the field
- Dec Conference championships · Playoff committee bracket announced
- Dec-Jan 12-team Playoff bracket plays through
- Jan 11 2027 National Championship game · resolution
Soccer's global cycle · MLS, Ballon d'Or, World Cup
3 contracts · resolve July to December 2026Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?
- Feb 21 MLS regular season opens
- Oct-Nov Playoffs bracket sets
- Dec 6 Conference finals
- Dec 19 MLS Cup final · resolution
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- Jun-Jul World Cup runs reshape the award race
- Aug-Sep 30-player shortlist announced
- Oct 26 Ceremony in London · resolution
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- Jun 11 World Cup begins
- Jun-Jul Group stage and knockout rounds
- Jul 19 Final · resolution
Year-end championships and entertainment
3 contracts · resolve December 2026 to March 2027Who will be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- Per race Each Grand Prix reprices the contract
- Aug-Sep European leg + Italian GP
- Nov Brazilian and Las Vegas GPs
- Dec 6 Abu Dhabi season finale · resolution
Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
- Throughout Cultural and political news shifts the candidate field
- Nov TIME shortlist announced · field narrows
- Early Dec TIME reveals Person of the Year · resolution
Who will win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
- Sep 2026 NFL season opens · early form sets the field
- Per game Each week reprices the contract
- Jan Playoffs begin · variance ramps up
- Feb 14 2027 Championship game · resolution
Sports and entertainment glossary.
The trophy awarded to the World Series winner. Kalshi World Series contracts resolve at the moment the trophy is presented at the end of the clinching game. The contract closes within minutes of the on-field ceremony.
The implied probability a team wins a best-of-seven series, derived from per-game odds. Sportsbook traders translate prediction-market price into series odds and vice versa. The bridge is sometimes called the 'series-line decompose.'
A UMA tokenholder pre-approved to file resolution outcomes on Polymarket markets. Introduced with MOOV2 in August 2025 to reduce dispute volume on semantic-resolution markets. Sports contracts increasingly resolve through whitelisted proposers.
The interval between an award being voted (by media, academy, or league panel) and being publicly announced. MVP, Coach of the Year, Oscars Best Picture, all have a 24-72 hour vote-to-announce window where contract price moves on rumor.
The difference between the price you filled at and the price the market closed at. Positive CLV is the standard sportsbook proxy for skill. Prediction-market traders use the same concept across longer windows: opening price vs. resolution price.
On Polymarket multi-option markets (e.g. Eurovision winner, World Cup winner), each binary child has a groupItemTitle naming the specific option (country, team, candidate). Used by traders to navigate between binaries within a single event.
The gap between bid and ask on a contract. Wide spread = market uncertainty. Tightens as resolution approaches and the price converges. Widens when an injury or upset creates disagreement.
When a contract's resolution language admits more than one interpretation. Common in award contracts ('best' is whose vote?), eligibility contracts ('qualified' under whose rules?), and timing contracts ('before X date' in whose timezone?). The structural risk of sports / entertainment markets.
Showing 8 of 108 terms View full glossary
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Sports and entertainment prediction market FAQ.
Kalshi's championship contracts (World Series, Stanley Cup, Super Bowl, NBA Finals) auto- settle once the league announces the winner via official channels. World Series resolves at Commissioner's Trophy presentation; Stanley Cup at the Cup ceremony; NBA Finals at the Commissioner's Trophy presentation. Settlement happens within minutes of the on-court ceremony. There is no dispute window on these contracts.
