Discover and track economy and finance prediction markets.
Compare live prices on the Fed rate path, recession and layoff odds, CPI prints, and IPO debuts. Get alerts when they move.
Last updated
Get live prices with a free account.
Prediction Market Scanner
Real-time prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi
Filter to find economy and finance markets that interest you. Follow and set alerts to be notified when they move.
Get alerts on Economy markets. Set it up free in 30 seconds.
How economy and finance contracts work.
A platform lists an event with a deadline and a named resolution source. Often binary (yes or no), sometimes categorical or multiple-choice.
Inside the contract window, the economy does what it does. GDP grows or contracts. Inflation rises or falls. The Fed cuts rates or holds.
Resolution is decided by the named source in the contract. BLS first-release CPI, BEA advance GDP, NBER recession dating committee. The first release is usually binding even if the source revises later.
The platform settles the contract against the source. Kalshi auto-settles against the official release. Polymarket settles via UMA proposer; the network confirms within 24 hours unless disputed. Resolution disputes on data-driven contracts are usually about timing, not number.
Same event. Different platforms.
Will there be a recession in ?
Auto-settles against the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration. Kalshi resolves once NBER publishes a recession start date that falls within . Closes to allow NBER's typical - month declaration lag.
US recession by end of ?
Resolves via UMA proposer against NBER's declaration. Proposer files outcome, network confirms within hours. Polymarket's resolution language is broader, can interpret NBER timing differently than Kalshi. Read the language carefully.
Both contracts settle against the same outcome. What changes is the venue: liquidity, fees, and how each platform handles edge cases.
Follow a live economic contract.
Will there be a US recession in 2026?
BEA publishes its Q1 advance estimate of GDP at the end of April. Q1 prints positive at +1.4% annualised. The market reprices: a single positive quarter doesn't rule out recession, but it pushes the recession timeline later in 2026 or into 2027. Recession contract drops to the high 20s.
The 2026 economy and finance contract calendar.
Fed rate path · 2026
3 contracts · resolve Dec 2026 · all driven by FOMC sequenceHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Per FOMC 8 FOMC meetings · each can move the count
- Q3 Jackson Hole · forward guidance
- Dec 9 Final FOMC of 2026
- Dec 31 UMA proposer files outcome
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- 8 FOMC Each FOMC meeting reprices the ladder
- Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec SEP dot-plot releases
- Dec 9 Final FOMC of 2026 sets the close
- Dec 31 UMA proposer files end-of-year rate
Will the Fed hike rates in 2026?
- Per CPI Hot prints push hike odds higher
- Q3 Jackson Hole hawkish-tilt watch
- Dec 9 Final FOMC of 2026 · last hike opportunity
- Dec 31 UMA proposer files outcome
Recession + inflation
3 contracts · resolve Jan to Feb 2027 · NBER and BLS dependentWill there be a recession (NBER) in 2026?
- Quarterly BEA advance, second, third GDP releases
- Monthly BLS NFP · Sahm-rule trigger watch
- Aug BLS annual NFP benchmark revision
- Jan 31, 2027 NBER declaration deadline (or contract NO)
US recession by end of 2026?
- Quarterly BEA advance GDP releases
- Monthly BLS NFP · Sahm-rule trigger watch
- Q3-Q4 Yield-curve evolution
- Jan 31, 2027 UMA proposer files outcome
How high will inflation get this year?
- ~13th Monthly BLS CPI release (YoY)
- Q1-Q2 Tariff-driven price surge watch
- Q3-Q4 Annual CPI peak window
- Feb 14, 2027 Final 2026 CPI YoY peak determined
Equity event + commodities
3 contracts · OpenAI IPO, Discord IPO, gold · resolution-window thresholdsWhere will OpenAI's IPO market cap close?
- Per S-1 OpenAI files S-1 (registration statement)
- Per roadshow Pricing range and book-building updates
- IPO day Day-1 closing market cap is the resolution event
- Dec 31, 2027 Resolution deadline if no IPO completes
Will Discord IPO before 2027?
- Per filing A confidential or public S-1 filing would signal intent
- Per funding Late-stage private raises can push the timeline out
- Per market The tech-IPO window sets whether listings get priced
- Dec 31, 2026 Resolution deadline · YES if Discord lists by then
Where will Gold close by end of June 2026?
- Per FOMC Real-rate path moves gold
- Per geopol Crisis flight-to-safety bid
- Per CB Central-bank gold-buying disclosures
- Jun 30, 2026 Resolution deadline · GC high through window
Economy and finance glossary.
The official US recession arbiter. NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee declares recession start and end dates, typically with a 6-12 month lag. Recession contracts that close before NBER calls resolve NO regardless of underlying conditions.
2026 US recession (NBER)BLS publishes CPI and NFP data on a regular schedule. The first release is binding for prediction-market resolution, even though BLS revises numbers in subsequent releases. The 2024 NFP benchmark revision (a 818k downward revision) is the textbook example of why this rule matters.
2026 inflation peak above 4.5%BEA's first GDP estimate, published roughly one month after quarter-end. Two more revisions follow (second, third). Most economy and finance contracts resolve on the advance estimate, not the revised numbers.
2026 US recessionThe Summary of Economic Projections published quarterly with FOMC meetings. Each member's anonymous dot reflects their forecast of the year-end Fed Funds rate. Median dot moves Fed-rate-path contracts.
0 Fed cuts in 2026Triggered when the 3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low. Has historically signalled recession start in real time. Triggered briefly in 2024, partially undone by subsequent revisions.
On Polymarket, a UMA tokenholder files proposed outcomes on settled contracts. After filing, a 24-hour dispute window allows challenges with a $750 bond. Economy and finance contracts have lower dispute frequency than political contracts but higher than weather.
2026 US recessionThe gap between bid and ask on a contract. Wide spread = market uncertainty. Tightens around scheduled prints (CPI, FOMC) and widens after unscheduled events (geopolitical shocks, banking-stress headlines).
Economy and finance contracts resolve on the first official release of a number, not the final revised value. CPI prints, NFP totals, and GDP estimates all get revised after release; contracts pay on the first print regardless.
Showing 8 of 108 terms View full glossary
Latest news
Latest in Economy & Finance.
AI IPOs (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX): Valuations & Odds
AI IPO timing, valuation brackets, model supremacy, and market cap prediction market odds on Polymarket and Kalshi.
SpaceX IPO Odds 2026: Valuation Prediction Markets
SpaceX IPO, Starship launch milestones, and Artemis moon mission prediction market contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Gold, Oil & Silver Price Predictions 2026 | Live Odds
Gold, oil, and silver price threshold and bracket prediction market contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026: Odds & Forecasts
BTC price thresholds, altcoin returns, crypto regulation, and institutional stress contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Recession Odds & 2026 Housing Market Predictions
Recession, Fed rate cuts, inflation, and housing policy prediction market odds across Polymarket and Kalshi.
Market scanner
See how to make full use of the market scanner.
Compare every market across platforms, read the live signals, and set alerts so the moves come to you.
Economy and finance prediction market FAQ.
Kalshi's KXRECSSNBER series resolves against the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee's official declaration. The contract auto-settles YES when NBER publishes a recession start date that falls within the contract year, and NO otherwise. Critically, NBER typically lags the actual recession start by 6-12 months. The 2026 contract closes Jan 31, 2027, which is shorter than NBER's typical lag. If NBER hasn't called by then, the contract resolves NO regardless of underlying conditions.