Discover and track economy and finance prediction markets.

Polymarket runs cumulative-count markets ("0 cuts in 2026," "1 cut," "2 cuts," etc.) that resolve at year-end against the sum of FOMC actions. Single thesis, single resolution. Kalshi runs per-meeting decision markets ("Will the Fed hike rates by 0 bps at the June 2026 meeting?") that resolve within minutes of each FOMC press release. Eight resolutions per year vs. one. Most rate-path traders take Polymarket for thesis positions and Kalshi for in-meeting trading.

Economy and finance contracts resolve on the BLS first release, not subsequent revisions. If a CPI print resolves a contract YES and BLS later revises the number below threshold, the contract still pays. This is the structural rule across both Kalshi and Polymarket. Read the resolution language for "as released by BLS on date X" or "first publication" clauses, those confirm the first-release rule.

The Sahm Rule (Claudia Sahm, 2019) triggers when the 3-month average of US unemployment rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low. Historically a real-time recession signal. Triggered briefly in mid-2024 but partially reversed by subsequent revisions. Contract price on recession markets typically jumps 5-10 cents on a Sahm trigger and retraces if the next print pulls back below threshold.

Kalshi closes the contract Jan 31, 2027 to balance two competing constraints: NBER's typical 6-12 month declaration lag, and the operational need to settle contracts within a reasonable window. If NBER hasn't published a 2026-dated recession by Jan 31, 2027, the contract resolves NO. This means a recession that starts in late 2026 but isn't formally dated until late 2027 will resolve the Kalshi contract NO even if the underlying conditions match a recession.

Both venues have their own structures (cumulative count vs. per-meeting decision), so cross-venue positions on Fed-rate events usually go via Fed Funds futures as the common reference. Convert prediction-market price to implied probability, compare to Fed Funds futures implied probability, take the larger discrepancy. Kalshi's per-meeting contracts arb most cleanly against CME's per-meeting Fed Funds futures.

Polymarket settlements on these contracts run via UMA proposer. Number-vs-threshold disputes are rare because the data is unambiguous. Most disputes are about timing language: "before April" can be ambiguous if the data is published in late April for March activity. Read the resolution language to identify "before X release date" vs. "for X period" framing. UMA's MOOV2 whitelist (August 2025) applies to high-volume contracts in this cluster.

BEA publishes GDP in three sequential estimates: advance (one month after quarter-end, e.g. late April for Q1), second (two months after, late May), third (three months after, late June). Most economy and finance contracts resolve on the advance estimate. Each subsequent revision can move the number meaningfully but does not unwind already-settled contracts.

Polymarket IPO-cap contracts (e.g. "Will OpenAI's IPO close above $1T?") resolve on the official Day-1 closing market cap as reported by the listing exchange. The contract triggers only if an IPO actually completes within the contract window; if the company does not IPO before the deadline, the contract resolves NO. Read the resolution language for "first trading day close" vs. "first 30 days close" framing, the difference can be meaningful for IPOs that pop or fade after Day 1.

Banking-stress markets ask whether a named bank or stablecoin issuer experiences a credit event (FDIC takeover, peg break, capital injection) during a window. The 2023 USDC depeg following SVB's failure is the modern reference for stablecoin variants. Resolution sources are usually FDIC announcements for banks or hourly Coinbase or Kraken candles for stablecoins. Liquidity in these markets spikes during banking-stress headlines.

FOMC announcements are published at 2:00 PM ET on decision days, with the Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Fed-decision contracts resolve on the 2:00 PM written statement, not the press conference. Press-conference language can move price for the next contract (the dot plot or the next meeting), but does not unwind the just-settled contract. Watch for press-conference price action on adjacent contracts immediately after a clean settlement.

Commodity contracts on Polymarket are typically structured as month-end or quarter-end threshold markets ("oil hits $X by end of June"). The shorter window matches commodity markets' price volatility and the resolution-source quality of futures-exchange daily highs. Rate and recession contracts are macro thesis markets that benefit from a full-cycle window; commodity contracts are more like in-cycle volatility plays.