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How political contracts work.
A platform lists an event with a deadline and a named resolution source. Often binary (yes or no), sometimes categorical or multiple-choice.
Inside the contract window, the political event either happens or it doesn't. A candidate wins or loses. A nominee gets confirmed or doesn't. A bill passes or it doesn't.
Resolution is decided by the named source in the contract. AP Decision Desk, state secretary of state certification, network calls, party convention vote.
The platform settles the contract against the source. Kalshi auto-settles against the AP-confirmed party count once 51 seats are called. Polymarket settles via UMA proposer; the network confirms within 24 hours unless disputed. Disputes on political contracts are more frequent than on weather contracts.
Same event. Different platforms.
Which party will win the U.S. Senate in ?
Auto-settles against AP Decision Desk race calls. Kalshi resolves once AP confirms Senate seats for one party. No proposer, no dispute window. Closes to allow runoffs and recounts to complete.
Which party will win the U.S. Senate in ?
Resolves via UMA proposer against AP race calls. Proposer files outcome, network confirms within hours unless disputed. dispute bond. Closes, sooner than the Kalshi version.
Both contracts settle against the same outcome. What changes is the venue: liquidity, fees, and how each platform handles edge cases.
Follow a live political contract.
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?
Q1 FEC filings post April 15. Cook releases its first round of post-Q1 ratings shortly after. Several Toss-up districts move to Lean Democratic on Cook fundraising margin, candidate quality, and presidential approval headwinds. The cycle starts repricing on real campaign data, not 2024 history.
The 2026 political contract calendar.
2026 Midterms · who controls Congress
3 contracts · resolve Nov 2026 to Feb 2027Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
- Apr 15 Q1 FEC filings post
- Q3 Cook late-summer Senate ratings
- Nov 3 Election Night · AP calls
- Feb 1 Auto-settles once AP confirms 51 seats
Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
- Apr 15 Q1 FEC filings post
- Q3 Cook late-summer Senate ratings
- Nov 3 Election Night · AP calls
- Nov 4 UMA proposer files outcome (24h dispute)
Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026?
- Apr 15 Q1 FEC filings post
- Jun-Jul Special elections and primaries
- Nov 3 Election Night · AP calls
- Feb 1 Auto-settles once AP confirms 218 seats
2028 Presidential field
3 contracts · resolve Nov 2028 · long-arc binariesWho will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee?
- 2026 Midterm cycle profile-building
- Q1 2027 Iowa caucus calendar locks
- Jan 2028 Iowa caucuses
- Aug 2028 Democratic National Convention · resolution
Who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
- 2026-27 Vice-presidential profile and party-leader testing
- Jan 2028 Iowa caucuses
- Mar 2028 Super Tuesday
- Jul 2028 Republican National Convention · resolution
Who will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee?
- 2026 Midterm cycle profile-building
- Jan 2028 Iowa caucuses
- Mar 2028 Super Tuesday
- Aug 2028 DNC roll-call vote · UMA proposer files outcome
Trump administration · personnel and policy
3 contracts · the long-tail bets · resolve 2027 to 2029Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
- Per event Resignation, removal, or replacement announcement
- Per event Senate Judiciary confirmation hearing
- Per event Floor vote and confirmation
- Jan 20, 2029 Resolution if no AG change before term end
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- Per event Diplomatic negotiation milestones
- Per event Danish or Greenlandic referendum or treaty
- Per event US Senate ratification of any acquisition
- Dec 31, 2026 UMA proposer files outcome at deadline
Will Donald Trump be out as President before 2027 (excluding death)?
- Per event Impeachment vote (House)
- Per event Senate trial outcome
- Per event 25th Amendment invocation
- Jan 1, 2027 Auto-resolves if Trump still in office
Politics glossary.
The Associated Press's election-call team. Resolves nearly every Kalshi major-race contract. AP calls a race when it judges that the trailing candidate cannot mathematically catch up. Network and Decision Desk HQ calls vary; the contract names AP specifically.
2026 House control (Dems)Partisan Voting Index. A district's lean relative to the national average. R+5 means the district voted 5 points more Republican than the country in the last two presidential cycles. Used to translate generic-ballot signals into district-level price.
An off-cycle election to fill a seat between regular elections. Special-election margins historically over-perform the next-cycle generic ballot by 3-5 points. Large out-party over-performance is read as a leading midterm indicator.
Polls ask: "If the election were held today, would you vote Democratic or Republican for Congress?" Aggregated by RealClearPolitics, 538, others. Translates to a district-level forecast via swing assumptions.
On Polymarket, a UMA tokenholder who files a proposed outcome on a settled contract. After filing, a 24-hour dispute window allows challenges with a $750 bond. Disputes on political contracts are more frequent than on weather contracts.
2026 Senate control (Republicans)Quarterly campaign-finance report due April 15. Reveals fundraising margins, donor base, burn rate. Race-raters use FEC data to re-rate competitive seats. Q1 is the first read on candidate viability for the cycle.
The gap between bid and ask on a contract. Wide spread = market uncertainty. Tightens as resolution approaches and the price converges. Widens when a polling shift creates disagreement.
The post-election period during which an automatic or requested recount can occur. Most states trigger automatic recounts within 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points. Kalshi closes most Senate / House contracts on Feb 1 to allow recount completion.
Showing 8 of 108 terms View full glossary
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Politics prediction market FAQ.
Kalshi's CONTROLS and CONTROLH contracts auto-settle once the AP Decision Desk has called 51 Senate seats (or 218 House seats) for one party. The contract closes Feb 1 of the following year to allow runoffs and recounts to complete. If a runoff in Georgia or Louisiana tips control between Election Night and certification, the contract holds until AP confirms the final count. Settlement is final on the AP-confirmed party count.