Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and the Game Awards: 2026-2027 awards season prediction markets

Awards season prediction markets put a live price on who wins, and the choices run wider than Best Picture. You can back a specific actor or director in the acting and directing races, an album for Album of the Year, an artist for Best New Artist, a show for Outstanding Drama or Comedy, or a game for Game of the Year. Some markets ask who gets nominated rather than who wins, or which film leads the field in total nominations. Each is a yes or no contract that pays one dollar if it resolves yes and nothing if it does not. Television settles first, at the Emmys in September. Video games follow at the Game Awards in December. Film and music voting builds through the Golden Globes in January, runs through a guild-heavy stretch in February, and resolves at the Oscars in March.

Film carries the deepest books on both platforms, concentrated in Best Picture and the lead acting and directing races. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey became a market fixture the moment it opened in July, and its ensemble cast keeps several acting categories tied to the same story.

The other three arrive later in the season, each at a different stage. The Emmys land first, in September, with the nominees already set, so those markets have little left to surprise them. The Game Awards come in December, and hinge on a release question as much as a quality one: a game has to ship during the year to qualify, so a delay can pull a favorite out of contention. The Grammys land last, in February, and their nominees are not named until the fall, so those markets stay the thinnest and most speculative of the four.

• Guild and precursor awards. The DGA, PGA, SAG, and BAFTA all vote and announce in the weeks before the Oscars, and each guild's membership overlaps heavily with the matching Academy branch, so a guild winner functions as an early poll of the people who will decide the Oscar.
• For-your-consideration campaigns. Studios and labels spend the months between nominations and the ceremony running trade ads, screener mailings, and events aimed directly at voters.
• Eligibility windows and release slips. Every category has a cutoff date, and a film, album, or game that misses it rolls to the following year's race. Grand Theft Auto VI's two prior delays are the clearest live example of how a slip changes which year's market a title belongs to.
• The preferential ballot at the Oscars. Best Picture is decided by ranked-choice voting among Academy members, which rewards broad support across the membership over passionate but narrow backing.
• Nominations day. The moment nominees are announced, a market that had been spread across dozens of possible titles concentrates onto the confirmed field of five to ten contenders, and every existing contract reprices at once.

Awards season timeline

Live awards season markets

Frequently asked questions