LIVESports & Entertainment· June 1, 2026

Super Bowl LXI odds and 2026 NFL season predictions

Updated just now

Super Bowl LXI odds and 2026 NFL season predictions

Key Highlights

Super Bowl LXI odds open with the Los Angeles Rams and defending champion Seattle Seahawks as co-favorites, with the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs leading the chasing pack.
Ten of 32 NFL teams hired new head coaches this offseason, tying the all-time record for coaching turnover in a single cycle and reshaping championship and conference odds across both conferences.
Live prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi turn the question of who will win the Super Bowl into market-implied probability across the Super Bowl champion, the AFC and NFC championship races, and off-field outcomes.

Super Bowl LXI odds open with the Los Angeles Rams and defending champion Seattle Seahawks as co-favorites. Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, but a repeat looks hard: it lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to the Raiders' head job and MVP running back Kenneth Walker III to Kansas City, and the franchise is now up for sale. The 2026 season kicks off September 9 (Patriots at Seahawks) and ends February 14 at SoFi Stadium with the latest-dated Super Bowl ever. Ten teams changed head coaches, tying the all-time record and scrambling the conference picture.

What will move the 2026 NFL odds

Several unresolved variables will move Super Bowl odds and conference championship odds between now and February. They sit alongside the rest of our sports prediction markets.

Mahomes' return timeline. Kansas City's franchise quarterback tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15 of the 2025 season, ending a year that saw the Chiefs finish 6-11 and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014. He returned to the practice field at late-May OTAs in a non-contact brace, with the stated goal of being ready for Week 1; his health is the single biggest swing factor in the Chiefs' championship price.
Coaching carousel fallout. Ten teams hired new head coaches, tying the all-time record. Among the contenders resetting, Baltimore hired Jesse Minter from the Chargers and Buffalo promoted Joe Brady from offensive coordinator. First-year coaches historically produce volatile early-season results, which keeps conference odds unsettled into the fall.
Seattle's path to a repeat. No team has won consecutive Super Bowls since Kansas City captured back-to-back titles in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The Seahawks are breaking in their third offensive coordinator in three years (Brian Fleury, hired from San Francisco), and the franchise is changing hands for the first time in nearly three decades.
Schedule and trade-deadline catalysts. The full schedule and a record nine international games are set; strength of schedule, primetime load, and the October trade deadline are the next dated events that historically reprice team futures overnight.

How prediction markets price the Super Bowl race

Championship and conference tiers: Prediction markets break the NFL season into layered outcomes: outright Super Bowl winner, AFC and NFC champion, and individual team futures. A team priced to win its conference at several multiples of its Super Bowl odds tells a specific story about how traders view the path to February. These relative prices shift as rosters change and the season unfolds.

Reading market-implied probability: Each contract prices in cents that read directly as the probability the market assigns to who will win the Super Bowl or each conference. Comparing the Polymarket and Kalshi lines side by side shows where the two venues disagree, and the gaps tend to be widest on mid-tier contenders far from the resolution date.

Coaching turnover as a pricing problem: With nearly a third of the league running a new coaching system in 2026, markets must price these teams on limited information about scheme fit and player buy-in, and early-season results under first-year coaches tend to produce outsized swings in conference odds on both platforms.

Off-field contracts: Beyond game outcomes, prediction markets cover adjacent questions like whether the Super Bowl champion will visit the White House. These contracts blend sports results with political sentiment, offering an angle that traditional sportsbooks do not provide.

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Key Indicators

Seahawks (SB)

Rams (SB)

Bills (SB)

Ravens (SB)

Chiefs (SB)

Patriots (SB)

Season Timeline

Apr 23-25

2026 NFL Draft (Pittsburgh)

PM Impact: Completed. Raiders took QB Fernando Mendoza at #1; Jets took DE David Bailey at #2; Giants took LB Arvell Reese at #5.

May 14

Full Schedule Release

PM Impact: Completed. Patriots-Seahawks set for the Week 1 kickoff game; a record nine international games confirmed.

Mid-July

Training Camps Open

PM Impact: First look at new rosters. Injury reports begin affecting market prices.

Aug 6

Hall of Fame Game / Preseason Begins

PM Impact: Cardinals vs Panthers. First live game action of the season.

Sep 9

Regular Season Kickoff (Wednesday)

PM Impact: Defending champion Seattle hosts opener. Market liquidity surges.

Oct 2026

NFL Trade Deadline

PM Impact: Contenders acquire missing pieces. Can dramatically shift conference futures.

Jan 10

Regular Season Ends (Week 18)

PM Impact: Final playoff seeding locked. All Week 18 matchups are intra-division.

Jan 16-18

Wild Card Weekend

PM Impact: Playoff field narrows from 14 to 8. Single-elimination moves markets fast.

Jan 31

Conference Championships

PM Impact: AFC and NFC champions determined. Super Bowl matchup set.

Feb 14

Super Bowl LXI (SoFi Stadium)

PM Impact: Championship resolution. Latest Super Bowl date in NFL history.

Super Bowl LXI Contender Profiles

Team	2025 Record	Offseason Headline	Key Variable
Seattle Seahawks	14-3, SB LX champs	Franchise up for sale; lost OC Kubiak and RB Walker	Third OC in three years (Fleury) plus ownership transition mid-repeat bid
New England Patriots	14-3, lost SB LX	Core largely intact; Drake Maye entering year 3	Maye development arc after first Super Bowl experience at age 23
Los Angeles Rams	12-5, lost NFC Champ.	Acquired Trent McDuffie; Stafford returning after MVP season	Stafford age (38) vs. roster depth that nearly reached the Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	12-5, lost Div. Round	Promoted Joe Brady to HC; traded for WR DJ Moore	New defensive scheme under DC Jim Leonhard with Allen entering year 9
Kansas City Chiefs	6-11, missed playoffs	Mahomes ACL recovery; signed Kenneth Walker III	Mahomes return timeline and whether roster retool can restore contender status
Baltimore Ravens	8-9, missed playoffs	Hired Jesse Minter as HC; signed Trey Hendrickson	Lamar Jackson adapting to new offensive system under OC Declan Doyle

2026 Coaching Carousel

Team	New Head Coach	Previous Role	Replaced	Futures Implication
Baltimore Ravens	Jesse Minter	Chargers DC	John Harbaugh	Top candidate in cycle. Defense-first, but must build trust with Lamar in new system.
Buffalo Bills	Joe Brady	Bills OC (promoted)	Sean McDermott	Offensive continuity for Josh Allen. Defensive overhaul under new DC Leonhard.
Cleveland Browns	Todd Monken	Ravens OC	Kevin Stefanski	Offensive mind who empowered Lamar in Baltimore. Holds #6 overall pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers	Mike McCarthy	Former Cowboys HC	Mike Tomlin	First Steelers coaching change since 2007. Offensive background is a departure.
Las Vegas Raiders	Klint Kubiak	Seahawks OC	Pete Carroll	Designed Seattle SB-winning offense. Holds #1 pick (Mendoza).
New York Giants	John Harbaugh	Former Ravens HC	Brian Daboll	Only hire with a Super Bowl ring. Inherits Jaxson Dart and #5 pick.
Atlanta Falcons	Kevin Stefanski	Former Browns HC	Raheem Morris	Two-time Coach of the Year. Falcons have not made playoffs in 8 years.
Arizona Cardinals	Mike LaFleur	Rams OC	Jonathan Gannon	Kyler Murray departed in free agency. Holds #3 overall pick.
Miami Dolphins	Jeff Hafley	Packers DC	Mike McDaniel	Defense-first hire. New GM Sullivan. Acquired QB Malik Willis.
Tennessee Titans	Robert Saleh	Former Jets HC	Brian Callahan	Cam Ward entering year 2. Titans have #4 pick.

Key Offseason Trades

Player	Acquired By	From	Futures Impact
CB Trent McDuffie	Los Angeles Rams	Kansas City Chiefs	Rams sent 1st-round pick (#29) plus three later picks. McDuffie signed record 4yr/$124M extension. Directly addresses secondary weakness exposed in NFC Championship.
WR DJ Moore	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Bills sent 2nd-round pick (#60). Reunites Moore with HC Joe Brady, who coordinated his best seasons in Carolina. Fills Buffalo's most glaring offensive gap.
WR Jaylen Waddle	Denver Broncos	Miami Dolphins	Broncos sent 1st, 3rd, and 4th-round picks. Adds explosive playmaker for QB Bo Nix after Denver went 14-3 and earned the AFC's #1 seed in 2025.
WR Michael Pittman Jr.	Pittsburgh Steelers	Indianapolis Colts	Late-round pick swap. Pittman signed 3yr/$59M extension. Second consecutive offseason the Steelers traded for a veteran receiver.

2026 NFL Draft: Top of the Board (results)

Pick	Team	Selection	Pos	School	Roster Impact
#1	Las Vegas Raiders	Fernando Mendoza	QB	Indiana	Heisman winner joins Kubiak's system with Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty already on the roster.
#2	New York Jets	David Bailey	DE	Texas Tech	Edge rusher over the pre-draft favorite (Arvell Reese). Jets entered with two first-round picks and Geno Smith as bridge QB.
#3	Arizona Cardinals	Jeremiyah Love	RB	Notre Dame	Highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley. New HC LaFleur adds a featured back after releasing Kyler Murray.
#4	Tennessee Titans	Carnell Tate	WR	Ohio State	A surprise at #4. Gives second-year QB Cam Ward a primary target under new HC Saleh.
#5	New York Giants	Arvell Reese	LB	Ohio State	First selection of the John Harbaugh era. The pre-draft #2 favorite slid to five.

Super Bowl LXI odds snapshot (as of June 1, 2026)

Team	SB LXI Odds	Implied Prob.	Note
Los Angeles Rams	+800	~9.6%	Co-favorite. Retained MVP QB Matthew Stafford and added CB Trent McDuffie after a 12-5 NFC title-game season.
Seattle Seahawks	+950	~9.3%	Defending champion, seeking the first repeat since the 2022-23 Chiefs amid an ownership sale.
Baltimore Ravens	+950	co-leader tier	Climbed from 10-1 to the top tier; new HC Jesse Minter pairs with QB Lamar Jackson.
Buffalo Bills	+1000	top-five	Promoted Joe Brady to HC and traded for WR DJ Moore around QB Josh Allen.
Kansas City Chiefs	+1500	~7.1%	Price hinges on Patrick Mahomes' return from the Week 15 ACL/LCL tear; he was back at late-May OTAs in a brace.
Philadelphia Eagles	+1600	next tier	Steady contender odds entering the season.

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Ben L.

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Former gaming executive, multiple-time founder, and public and private market investor. Brings the operator perspective most sites can't: why platforms make the decisions they do, and what that means for you.