LIVEPolitics· July 27, 2026

World elections: live prediction-market odds for the 2026 and 2027 votes ahead.

Updated just now

World elections: live prediction-market odds for the 2026 and 2027 votes ahead.

Key highlights

Brazil votes for president on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate clears half the first round. Lula runs for a fourth term against a right splintered among several candidates after the courts barred Jair Bolsonaro from running until 2030. It is one of the two most heavily traded races on the board, alongside France 2027, and the first to resolve.
Seven votes fall between September and November 2026: Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, Sweden on September 13, Russia's State Duma and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern both on September 20, Latvia by October 3, Quebec on October 5, and Bulgaria's presidency in November. France then elects a president in April 2027, with the field already forming two years out.
How a contract resolves depends on the voting system. Two-round races (Brazil, France, Bulgaria) settle on an outright majority or a runoff between the top two. Proportional races (Sweden, Latvia, the German states) settle on which party wins the most seats and can form a government, not a single name. Romania and Italy have no scheduled vote at all: their markets resolve on whoever becomes prime minister next.

Brazil votes first, on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate clears half the first round. Lula runs for a fourth term against a right that splintered once the courts barred Jair Bolsonaro from running. France follows in April 2027; with Macron term-limited, Marine Le Pen, Édouard Philippe, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon already lead a field being priced two years early.

Between the two, a cluster of European and Canadian elections settles through autumn 2026, while Romania and Italy trade on who becomes prime minister next, with no vote scheduled. Every one of these contracts turns on the same two questions: who wins, and under what rule the win is counted. Those mechanics carry over from any political prediction market.

What moves world election markets.

A few forces drive world election prices:

The voting system decides what you are actually betting on. In a two-round race like Brazil or France, the market asks whether anyone wins outright in the first round, and if not, who wins the runoff. In a proportional system like Sweden or Latvia, no single person wins, so the market asks which party finishes first and can form a government.
A candidate being ruled in or out reprices the whole field in a day. When a court barred Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, or a conviction clouds Marine Le Pen's run in France, the favorite's support does not disappear. It shifts to whoever is still allowed to run.
Prices set years early track name recognition, not campaigns. France's 2027 and Argentina's 2027 races are trading before the candidates have organized, so an early leader is often just the best-known name, and those prices move a lot as real campaigns form.
A gap between platforms is only a signal where both carry the race. Brazil, France, Sweden, Bulgaria, and Argentina trade on both Polymarket and Kalshi, so a difference between the two prices is worth a look. Everywhere else, one platform is the only quote there is.
A leadership market can resolve with no election at all. Romania and Italy have no scheduled vote, so a resignation or a lost confidence vote can decide who is prime minister next at any time.

How world election markets resolve.

Two-round runoffs: Brazil, France, Bulgaria, Zambia, and Argentina elect a president in two rounds. The market prices both an outright first-round win and a runoff between the top two finishers, so a candidate can lead the first round and still lose the contract weeks later.

Proportional and parliamentary races: Sweden, Russia's Duma, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Latvia, Quebec, and the Cook Islands elect a legislature. The market settles on which party wins the most seats, and coalition arithmetic, not any single race, decides who governs afterward.

Next prime minister: Romania and Italy have no election scheduled. Their markets resolve on whoever next holds the prime minister's office, through a confidence vote, a resignation, or a new coalition, whenever that happens.

Cross-platform books: Brazil, France, Sweden, Bulgaria, and Argentina trade on both Polymarket and Kalshi, so a gap between the two prices is directly comparable. Most other races trade on Polymarket alone.

What settles the market: Each contract pays out on the official result certified by the national election authority, not a media projection or a poll. For a two-round race that can mean waiting on the runoff, weeks after the first vote.

Total Volume

Active Markets

Platforms

Key indicators

Brazil Real.

Euro.

Brent Crude

Gold

VIX.

S&P YTD+

Election timeline

Aug 12

Cook Islands general election

PM Impact: decides whether the governing Cook Islands Party extends its run or the opposition breaks through

Aug 13

Zambia general election, first round

PM Impact: decides whether Hakainde Hichilema wins a second term outright or heads to a runoff

Sep 6

Saxony-Anhalt state election

PM Impact: tests whether the AfD can take an outright plurality in a German state legislature

Sep 13

Sweden general election

PM Impact: decides which governing bloc, center-right or Social Democrat-led left, leads the next government

Sep 20

Russia State Duma election

PM Impact: sets the ranking among the parties below United Russia

Sep 20

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

PM Impact: tests whether the AfD overtakes the SPD as the state's largest party

Oct 3

Latvia parliamentary election

PM Impact: reshapes an already fragmented Saeima under a mid-term change of prime minister

Oct 4

Brazil presidential election, first round

PM Impact: decides whether Lula wins outright or advances to a runoff against the leading opposition finisher

Oct 5

Quebec general election

PM Impact: decides whether the CAQ holds the National Assembly or the PQ takes it

Oct 25

RN's 19th Party Congress (France)

PM Impact: expected to settle whether Le Pen or Bardella carries the RN nomination into 2027

Oct 25

Brazil presidential runoff, if triggered

PM Impact: settles the presidency between the top two first-round finishers

Nov 2026

Bulgaria presidential election

PM Impact: decides whether Iotova wins a full term after succeeding Radev mid-term

Jan 16 '27

Nigeria presidential, Senate, and House election

PM Impact: decides whether Tinubu wins a second term against Obi and Atiku

Feb 6 '27

Nigeria governorship and state assembly elections

PM Impact: settles state-level offices on a separate ballot three weeks after the federal vote

Apr 18 '27

France presidential election, first round

PM Impact: the first test of a field priced years early, with RN's own candidacy still legally contingent

May 2 '27

France presidential runoff, if triggered

PM Impact: settles the presidency between the top two first-round finishers

Oct 24 '27

Argentina general election, first round

PM Impact: tests whether Milei wins a second term outright under the ballotage rule

Nov 21 '27

Argentina presidential runoff, if triggered

PM Impact: settles the presidency between the top two first-round finishers

Key facts

Fact	Detail	Why it matters
Brazil presidential	First round October 4, 2026; runoff October 25 if no majority	One of the two most heavily traded races on the board, alongside France 2027, and the nearest major election to resolve.
Bolsonaro barred	Ineligible to run until 2030 by the Superior Electoral Court; a coup conviction extends the bar to 2060 once final	Removes the dominant opposition figure of the past decade. His son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, has become the leading right-of-center contender.
France 2027 field	Priced more than nine months before the April 2027 first round, with over a dozen declared candidates across left, center, and right	Reported as rivaling the record field of 2002. Raphael Glucksmann and Francois Hollande are among those still weighing a run.
RN nomination	Marine Le Pen's candidacy is conditional on her sentencing; Jordan Bardella is the designated fallback	The Rassemblement National congress on October 24 and 25, 2026 in Orleans is expected to settle who carries the party's nomination.
Priced on both platforms	Brazil president, France president, Sweden, Bulgaria, Argentina	A spread between Polymarket and Kalshi is directly comparable on these races. Most others trade on Polymarket only.
How winners are counted	Presidents by outright majority or runoff; parliaments by seat share	Brazil, France, Zambia, Bulgaria, and Argentina are two-round contests. Sweden, Latvia, and the German states settle by proportional or mixed seat allocation.
Next prime minister	Romania and Italy, no scheduled election	Both resolve on who holds the office next, decided by a parliamentary confidence vote or a resignation rather than a ballot on a fixed date.
Bulgaria's reversal	Rumen Radev resigned the presidency in January 2026, then led a new party to a majority and became prime minister in May 2026	The presidency is now held on an interim basis by Iliana Iotova, who is running for a full term. This race is for that office, not for Radev's new post.

World election calendar

Date	Country	Contest	What the market resolves on
Aug 12, 2026	Cook Islands	General election, 19th Parliament	Which party wins the most of the Parliament's seats, or forms government, once results are certified.
Aug 13, 2026	Zambia	General election (presidential, National Assembly, local government)	Who wins the presidency: the outright winner of the first round, or the winner of a runoff held within about a month if nobody clears the first-round bar.
Sep 6, 2026	Germany	Saxony-Anhalt state election	Which party takes the largest share of the state-list vote, separate from which parties end up governing together.
Sep 13, 2026	Sweden	General election (Riksdag)	Which governing bloc, the incumbent center-right coalition or the Social Democrat-led left bloc, forms the next government and holds the premiership.
Sep 18 to 20, 2026	Russia	State Duma election (9th convocation)	How the parties rank below United Russia, since United Russia's majority is not seriously contested; the meaningful markets are ordinal, not a straight win or lose.
Sep 20, 2026	Germany	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election	Whether the AfD overtakes the SPD as the state's largest party, separate from which parties end up governing together.
No later than Oct 3, 2026	Latvia	Parliamentary election (15th Saeima)	The seat allocation across a fragmented, multi-party field, as certified by Latvia's Central Election Commission.
Oct 4, 2026 (runoff Oct 25 if needed)	Brazil	Presidential election	Who wins the presidency: the candidate elected outright in the first round, or the winner of the October 25 runoff between the top two first-round finishers.
Oct 5, 2026	Canada (Quebec)	43rd Quebec general election (provincial)	Which party wins the most National Assembly seats or forms government; a provincial result, not a federal one.
Expected around Nov 2026 (date not yet fixed)	Bulgaria	Presidential election	Who wins the two-round popular vote for president, an office distinct from the prime ministership Rumen Radev now holds.
Jan 16, 2027	Nigeria	Presidential, Senate, and House of Representatives election	Who is confirmed president under Nigeria's plurality-plus-geographic-spread rule, certified by INEC, with a runoff process available if nobody clears both conditions.
Apr 18, 2027 (second round May 2 if needed)	France	Presidential election	Who is elected president: an outright first-round winner, or the winner of the May 2 runoff between the top two finishers.
Oct 24, 2027 (runoff Nov 21 if needed)	Argentina	General election (presidential)	Who wins the presidency under the ballotage rule: an outright first-round winner, or the winner of the November 21 runoff.
No scheduled vote	Romania	Next prime minister of Romania (leadership market)	Who is next confirmed as prime minister by a parliamentary confidence vote, whenever that happens; not tied to a scheduled election.
No scheduled vote	Italy	Next prime minister of Italy (leadership market)	Who holds the office of prime minister next, whenever a resignation, lost confidence vote, or new government changes it; not tied to a scheduled election.

How each system resolves

System	How a winner is decided	What the market prices	Races
Two-round majority runoff	A candidate wins outright by taking an absolute majority of valid votes in the first round; short of that, the top two finishers meet in a runoff two to three weeks later.	Which candidate is elected president once the applicable round is certified.	Brazil, France, Zambia, Bulgaria
Ballotage (two-round system with a lead-margin exception)	A candidate wins outright with either a strong plurality alone or a smaller plurality paired with a wide enough lead over second place; otherwise the top two go to a runoff about a month later.	Which candidate is elected president once the first round or runoff is certified.	Argentina
Proportional representation (party list)	Seats are allocated to party lists roughly in line with each party's vote share, subject to a minimum vote-share threshold to qualify; the parliament then elects or confirms a government.	Which party or governing bloc leads the next parliament and forms government.	Sweden, Latvia
Mixed system (constituency seats plus party list)	Some seats go to a single winner in local constituencies; the rest are allocated from party lists to bring each party's total closer to its overall vote share, again subject to a qualifying threshold.	Which party takes the largest vote or seat share in the state or national result.	Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Russia's State Duma
First-past-the-post (single-member plurality)	Each seat goes to whichever candidate gets the most votes in that district, with no runoff and no vote-share threshold to clear.	Which party wins the most seats and forms the next government.	Quebec, Cook Islands
Plurality with a geographic-spread requirement	A candidate must combine the largest national vote count with a minimum share of the vote across a broad spread of states; falling short of either condition triggers a runoff process.	Which candidate is confirmed president once the national election authority certifies both conditions.	Nigeria
Leadership or next-in-power market	A prime minister holds office only as long as they are nominated by the head of state and keep the confidence of parliament; there is no fixed ballot date.	Who holds the named office next, whenever a resignation, confidence vote, or new nomination changes it.	Romania, Italy
Party nomination or candidacy market	A political party settles its own presidential nominee at an internal congress or nomination process, ahead of and separate from the general election.	Which individual becomes the party's nominee once its internal process concludes.	France's Rassemblement National congress (Le Pen or Bardella)

How past elections moved markets

Election	What was at stake	How markets reacted
Brazil 2002	Lula, a former union leader on the left, headed for the presidency as investors feared a debt default.	The real fell about 40 percent against the dollar during the campaign, then recovered once Lula governed pragmatically.
UK 2016 (Brexit)	A referendum on leaving the European Union that markets had expected to fail.	The pound fell nearly 10 percent overnight to a 31-year low, its biggest one-day drop since exchange rates began floating.
France 2017	Marine Le Pen reached the runoff on a platform that included leaving the euro.	Macron's first-round win sent the CAC 40 up about 4 percent in a day and the euro to five-month highs, a relief rally.
Italy 2018	The euroskeptic Five Star Movement and League won enough to govern together.	The gap between Italian and German bond yields widened by more than 100 basis points as budget and euro risk got priced in.
Argentina 2023	Javier Milei won on a promise to dollarize the economy and shrink the state.	Argentine stocks rose about 18 percent in the days after the vote as markets cheered his free-market agenda.
France 2024	Macron called a snap parliamentary vote after the far right topped the European elections.	The CAC 40 dropped more than 6 percent and France's borrowing-cost gap over Germany hit its widest since the euro debt crisis.

All related markets

events · markets · Updated just now

POLY

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Brazil presidential election winner

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+

KLSH

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Brazil presidential election winner

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

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Which candidates advance to the Brazil runoff?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+

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Brazil

Any candidate win Brazil outright in round one?

Yes

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Brazil first round: second place

Flávio Bolsonaro-

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Brazil first round: margin of victory

Lula da Silva -+

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Brazil Senate: most seats won

PL+

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Who will run for president of Brazil?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

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Brazil first-round winner

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+

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Next French presidential election winner

Marine Le Pen+

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Next French presidential election winner

Marine Le Pen

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France : who will be on the ballot?

Marine Le Pen-

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France : who advances to the runoff?

Jordan Bardella+

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Next prime minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson-

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Sweden general election: largest party

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

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Sweden general election: largest party

Swedish Social Democratic Party+

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Russia Duma: most seats won

United Russia (ER)

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Russia parliamentary election: largest party

United Russia (ER)

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Saxony-Anhalt state election winner

AfD-

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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner

AfD-

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Latvian parliamentary election winner

LPV

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Bulgaria presidential election winner

Iliana Iotova

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Iliana Yotova

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Quebec general election winner

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Zambia presidential election winner

Hakainde Hichilema

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Cook Islands parliamentary election winner

Cook Islands Party+

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Argentina presidential election winner

Javier Milei

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Argentina presidential election winner

Javier Milei

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Nigerian presidential election winner

Bola Tinubu

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Next in power markets

Next prime minister of Romania

Alexandru Nazare

POLY

Next in power markets

Party of the next prime minister of Romania

Independent/Technocrat

POLY

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Next prime minister of Italy

Giorgia Meloni

Robert C.

Founder & CMO

Legal training meets poker bankroll management. 10 years of content marketing scaled to millions of pageviews. Runs the editorial side, turning platform research and live market data into the answers traders actually search for.