Iran war odds: peace deal, Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear predictions

By Ben L., Founder & CEO

Key highlights

• The US and Iran reached a framework deal on June 14, 2026 to end the war, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. Polymarket's permanent peace deal contracts settled YES across every 2026 horizon and have come off the board, so the market has closed the question of whether a deal gets done.
• The deal committed the US to lift its naval blockade and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping has been slow to follow. The July 31 reopening contract expired with transit calls still short of the threshold. As of August 2026, Polymarket prices a return to normal by December 31 at about 59 cents.
• Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi turn the open questions into live prices: when Hormuz traffic recovers, what happens to Iran's enriched uranium, whether a formal nuclear agreement follows, who leads Iran at the end of 2026, and whether the peace survives the year.

What will move Iran war odds next.

How prediction markets price the Iran deal.

Ceasefire & Diplomacy: Polymarket's permanent peace deal contracts settled YES and have come off the board, so the live diplomacy trade is the nuclear track. Kalshi's contract on a new US-Iran nuclear deal trades around 23 cents as of August 2026, while Polymarket splits the same subject into narrower questions: an end to enrichment by December 31 near 26 cents, and a surrender of the enriched uranium stockpile by year-end near 11 cents. The venues word the question differently, and the resolution rules, not the headline, explain the gap.

Strategic Targets & Hormuz: For the question of when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Polymarket prices a return to normal by December 31 at about 59 cents as of August 2026. Kalshi resolves on a specific public feed: the 7-day moving average of transit calls reported by IMF PortWatch must clear 60, and its ladder runs from roughly 18 cents before October to roughly 61 cents before July 2027. The July 31 contract expired with traffic still short of the threshold, so the autumn rungs are where the real disagreement now sits.

Regime Change: Year-end contracts price whether the Iranian regime falls (around 7 cents on Polymarket as of August 2026), whether Mojtaba Khamenei is still head of state at year-end (around 85 cents), whether any leadership change lands by December 31 (around 16 cents), and whether exiled figure Reza Pahlavi returns to lead (around 4 cents). Read the spread: the market prices meaningful churn at the top without regime collapse.

Military Escalation: For traders asking whether the war reignites, the live contracts are a US invasion of Iran before 2027, trading around 22 cents on Polymarket as of August 2026 despite the settled peace deal, and a formal US declaration of war by December 31 at around 5 cents. The distance between the two says the market treats a renewed use of force as far more likely than any declaration that names it.