2028 presidential election: odds and predictions
Updated just now
Key Highlights
- The 2028 presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028. The 22nd Amendment bars President Trump from a third term, so 2028 is the first open-seat contest since 2016, with contested primaries guaranteed in both parties.
- The November 2026 midterms are the single largest catalyst for the 2028 field, delivering the first hard electoral data on candidate viability since the 2024 cycle and resetting who counts as a frontrunner in each party.
- Polymarket and Kalshi price the race across four dimensions: which party wins the White House, the Democratic nomination, the Republican nomination, and individual general election odds for candidates like Gavin Newsom and J.D. Vance.
What will move the 2028 odds
- Whether Vice President Vance's institutional advantages translate into a durable primary campaign, or whether challengers like Secretary of State Rubio, Senator Cruz, or Governor DeSantis find a viable lane
- How the wide Democratic field consolidates when governors and senators compete alongside a former vice president for overlapping donor and activist networks
- Which candidates have actually declared. Most contracts still price undeclared names: Wes Moore carries a live Democratic-nominee contract on both platforms despite publicly ruling out a 2028 run and filing for Maryland reelection
- November 2026 midterm results, which will produce the first hard electoral data on candidate viability and party messaging since 2024
- A potential Trump endorsement before or after the midterms, a decision that could freeze the Republican field or fracture it
- The DNC's pending decision on its 2028 primary calendar, which could reshape the early-state sequence that has historically winnowed crowded fields
How prediction markets price the 2028 race
Balance of Power: Markets track which party wins the White House, with Kalshi offering a combined contract that prices the presidency alongside House and Senate control for full sweep and split-government scenarios.
Party Nominations: Both Polymarket and Kalshi carry full candidate fields for the Democratic primary and the Republican nomination, with every serious contender holding an individual contract. The Democratic field is led by Gavin Newsom; the Republican field is led by J.D. Vance, with Marco Rubio the most-watched challenger. Primary debates and early-state results will drive the sharpest price moves in these markets.
Individual Winner Markets: Kalshi hosts person-level contracts for the general election, letting traders price a specific candidate as the next president independent of the party-nomination market. This is where the answer to who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election shows up most directly.
Catalysts and Calendar: The November 2026 midterms are the dominant near-term repricing event and the moment 2026 midterm prediction markets feed directly into the 2028 field. Candidate declarations in late 2026, first primary debates in mid-2027, and the Iowa caucuses in late January 2028 mark the next sequence of high-volatility triggers.
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