A pandemic is not a case count. WHO declares emergencies, and the word pandemic is not even a formal category in the international health rules. Every market here turns on what an institution decides, not on how bad an outbreak looks.
The threats WHO is actively watching in 2026 are H5N1 bird flu in animals, a US measles resurgence, and a large Ebola outbreak in central Africa. None has been characterized as a pandemic.
Since 2000, WHO has declared a global health emergency nine times and characterized a pandemic twice, H1N1 in 2009 and COVID in 2020. That record, how often these declarations actually happen, is the base rate for pricing these markets.
A large Ebola outbreak is running in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, and on 17 May 2026 WHO called it a public health emergency of international concern. In the same statement it said the outbreak does not meet the criteria of a pandemic emergency. That distinction, between a serious outbreak and a pandemic, is what every market on this page is really about.
Polymarket and Kalshi price the concrete versions of that question: how many US measles cases 2026 brings, whether the US reports a human bird flu case, whether WHO characterizes any new pandemic before the year ends. What moves those prices is rarely the biology. It is whether an institution acts, and which word it uses when it does.
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How a pandemic gets declared
Every market on this page turns on what an institution says, so it helps to know exactly what it can say. There are two formal levels, plus one word that is not formal at all.
Term
What it means
How often it has happened
Public health emergency (PHEIC)
WHO's formal alarm for a serious outbreak that threatens to cross borders, declared under the International Health Regulations. This is the real lever, and the one most of these markets watch.
Nine times since 2005, including COVID, mpox, Ebola, and polio.
Pandemic emergency
A higher level WHO can add on top of a public health emergency for the most severe, widely spreading events. It has existed only since September 2025.
Never used. Both emergencies declared since it existed were explicitly held below it.
The word pandemic
Not a formal category at all. No rule defines it and WHO presses no button. WHO called COVID a pandemic at a March 2020 press briefing and said in the same breath that the word changed nothing it was doing.
A description, not a legal act. Applied to COVID in 2020 and, loosely, to H1N1 in 2009.
Live example: Ebola in DR Congo and Uganda
WHO declared a public health emergency on 17 May 2026 and stated, in writing, that it does not meet the bar for a pandemic emergency.
The clearest live illustration of the gap every market here prices.
The diseases these markets track
Six diseases carry the markets on this page. Here is what each one is and where it actually stands.
Disease
What it is
Where it stands
H5N1 bird flu
A bird flu strain widespread in wild birds, poultry, and US dairy cattle. It infects people in close contact with animals but does not spread from person to person.
A pandemic would need it to change so it passes between people, which has not happened. WHO rates the human risk as low.
Measles
One of the most contagious viruses known, prevented by the MMR vaccine. The US eliminated it in 2000.
Undervaccinated communities have driven the largest US outbreaks in decades, and whether the country keeps its elimination status is under review. The live market on this page resolves on a 2026 US case count, a concrete proxy for how far the resurgence runs.
Ebola
A severe, often fatal disease spread through contact with bodily fluids, with recurring outbreaks in central and east Africa.
A large outbreak is active in DR Congo and Uganda in 2026. It is a declared emergency, not a pandemic; the markets track whether cases reach new countries.
Mpox
A relative of smallpox. The clade Ib strain drove an outbreak in central Africa.
Its emergency was lifted in September 2025. Markets track US case counts.
Polio
Nearly eradicated worldwide, but wild virus still circulates in a few countries.
The polio emergency has run continuously since 2014. Markets track whether a US case appears and whether the world reaches a year with zero wild cases.
Hantavirus
A rodent-borne virus. Most types do not spread between people; the rare Andes type can.
A 2026 cruise-ship cluster drew attention, but WHO called the global risk low and closed the outbreak in July 2026. The markets track whether WHO calls it a pandemic (Polymarket) or declares a public health emergency (Kalshi).
Major pandemics and outbreaks since 2000
2003
SARS
The first new disease of the century to spread worldwide. It caused around 8,000 cases and 770 deaths and was contained without a vaccine, before the modern emergency system existed.
2009
H1N1 swine flu
Declared a public health emergency and then a pandemic, the first of the modern era. It spread worldwide with a relatively low fatality rate.
2012
MERS
A deadly coronavirus from camels, centered on the Arabian Peninsula. Never a pandemic: recurring clusters, high fatality, no sustained spread between people.
2014
Ebola in West Africa
The largest Ebola outbreak on record, with over 11,000 deaths. A public health emergency, not a pandemic, and the outbreak that drove the first Ebola vaccines.
2014
Polio
Declared a public health emergency that, unusually, has never been lifted. Still in force in 2026.
2016
Zika
A mosquito-borne virus linked to birth defects, declared a public health emergency across the Americas. Never characterized as a pandemic.
2020
COVID-19
A public health emergency in January 2020, then the defining pandemic of the century. The emergency ran until May 2023.
2022
Mpox
A global mpox outbreak declared a public health emergency, brought under control with vaccines and behavior change.
2024
Mpox, clade Ib
A second mpox emergency, centered on central Africa. Lifted in September 2025.
How likely is a new pandemic
There is no honest single number, but there are two credible estimates worth knowing, and one reason neither one prices these markets.
Estimate
The figure
What it means
The most-cited academic estimate, corrected
About a 17% chance of a COVID-scale pandemic over a lifetime, not the 38% still quoted everywhere.
The famous 38% came from a 2021 paper whose code double-counted outbreaks. The journal corrected it in 2023, but most articles and AI answers still repeat the dead number.
A second, independent estimate
Roughly a 2 to 3% chance per year of an event as deadly as COVID.
From a 2023 working paper. It looks far apart from the first only because the two measure different things: a death rate versus a total death toll.
Why neither prices the markets
Experts estimate severity. Markets resolve on a declaration.
A new-pandemic-in-2026 contract is not answering the experts' question. A low academic annual probability does not make a cheap pandemic market overpriced; they are different questions. Do not divide one by the other.
Key terms
Term
Definition
PHEIC
Public health emergency of international concern. WHO's formal alarm for a serious cross-border outbreak, and the main lever these markets watch.
Pandemic
An outbreak spreading across many countries. Despite common use, it is not a formal WHO category with a defined trigger.
Endemic transmission
Continuous spread of a disease within a country for 12 months or more. The measure behind US measles elimination status.
Zoonotic
A disease that jumps from animals to people, like bird flu. Most new outbreaks begin this way.
Case fatality rate
The share of confirmed cases that die. Usually overstated early in an outbreak, when mild cases go uncounted.
H5N1
The strain of bird flu now widespread in animals, and the most-watched pandemic candidate.
MMR
The measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine. Two doses are about 97% effective against measles.
Pandemic and outbreak prediction markets
events · markets · Updated just now
POLY
New pandemic & PHEIC watch markets
Will a new pandemic be declared in ?
New pandemic declared in (Polymarket)+
POLY
New pandemic & PHEIC watch markets
New coronavirus pandemic or COVID variant in ?
New COVID variant of concern before (Polymarket)+
POLY
New pandemic & PHEIC watch markets
Will Ebola cause a pandemic in ?
Ebola pandemic in (Polymarket)
POLY
New pandemic & PHEIC watch markets
Hantavirus pandemic and emergency watch in ?
Hantavirus pandemic in (Polymarket)-
POLY
US measles resurgence markets
US measles cases in (Polymarket)
US measles: at least cases (Polymarket)-
KLSH
US measles resurgence markets
US measles cases in (Kalshi)
US measles: more than cases (Kalshi)-
KLSH
US measles resurgence
Will the US lose measles elimination status?
US loses measles elimination status in
KLSH
US measles resurgence markets
US measles under the current administration
Trump-term average US measles: at least /yr
KLSH
Ebola case tracker markets
Ebola case by country before
Ebola case in Republic of the Congo before -
KLSH
Bird flu & H5N1 markets
US H5N1 bird flu human cases in
US H5N1 human cases in : more than
KLSH
Mpox, polio & policy
US mpox clade Ib cases in
US mpox clade Ib cases in : more than
KLSH
Mpox, polio & policy markets
Polio in and beyond
A year with zero wild polio cases before
KLSH
Mpox, polio & policy markets
Public-health policy and vaccine watch
Hantavirus vaccine in (Polymarket)
Frequently asked questions
Will bird flu become a pandemic?
No one can promise either way, and the honest reading as of mid-2026 is that H5N1 stays a zoonotic risk rather than a pandemic. The virus is widespread in birds and has become entrenched in US dairy cattle, but WHO reports no sustained human-to-human transmission and rates the risk of the virus spreading from animals to people as low. A pandemic would require the virus to change so that it spreads efficiently between people, which has not happened. The live markets on this page price how likely traders think specific bird-flu outcomes are, and the CDC situation summary carries the current human-case count.
When is the next pandemic?
There is no scheduled date, and credible sources avoid naming one. Public-health agencies watch several pathogens at once, with H5N1 bird flu the most-cited candidate as of 2026. The prediction markets here turn that uncertainty into prices for concrete outcomes, such as whether any new pandemic is declared during the year. Read alongside the WHO and CDC trackers, they show how the priced outcome moves as case counts and declarations change.
Is bird flu the next pandemic?
Bird flu is the most-watched candidate, but watched is not the same as inevitable. H5N1 causes sporadic human infections, almost all among people with close animal contact, and no sustained spread between people has been documented. Scientists monitor it closely because influenza viruses can change, not because a human pandemic is underway. The markets below show where traders currently land on that question.
How likely is a bird flu pandemic in 2026?
WHO assessed the risk of the virus spreading from animals to people as low in early 2026, with human cases confined mostly to exposed farm workers. The live markets on this page price how likely traders think a 2026 outcome is, and they update as new human cases and animal outbreaks are reported. That makes the linked CDC and WHO trackers matter more than any static number.
What is Disease X?
Disease X is a placeholder name WHO uses for an unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic or pandemic. It is a planning concept, not a specific virus, meant to keep research and preparedness ready for something not yet identified. No market on this page trades Disease X directly, but the pandemic-declaration markets capture the same underlying question of whether a serious new outbreak arrives.
How do you prepare for a bird flu pandemic?
Preparation guidance comes from public-health agencies, not from a markets page, so the CDC and WHO sites are the right starting points. General public-health advice centers on staying current with recommended vaccines, avoiding contact with sick or dead animals, and following official updates during any outbreak. This page adds context by showing how traders are pricing bird-flu and pandemic outcomes.
Is there a pandemic in 2026?
There is an emergency, and there is no pandemic, and the gap between those two is the whole subject of this page. Two WHO public health emergencies of international concern are active: Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, determined on 17 May 2026, and polio, running since 2014. But WHO has explicitly said neither meets the bar for its higher 'pandemic emergency' tier, and no disease has been characterized as a pandemic in 2026. The acute stories are the Ebola outbreak, animal-sector H5N1 bird flu, and a US measles resurgence. The markets on this page price whether an institution declares that second thing, a pandemic, during the year.
Legal training meets poker bankroll management. 10 years of content marketing scaled to millions of pageviews. Runs the editorial side, turning platform research and live market data into the answers traders actually search for.
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